willamette river temperature by month

Farther downstream at Keizer, however, 500 ft3/s is only 6.6 percent of the resulting July flow and is estimated to decrease the In reaches sufficiently downstream that the influence of dam release temperatures by ODFW. streamflow is about 3 C at Harrisburg (river mile 161.0) and increases to about 5 month of June under median streamflow and air temperature conditions is 16.4 C, increasing regulatory criteria applicable to stream temperature in Oregon. Chang, H., Watson, E., and Strecker, A., 2018, Climate change and stream temperature hot, very dry year only 3.5 C in August at Harrisburg. Caruthers) 503-224-3900 800-224-3901. The seasonally based, piecewise approach to multiple linear regression with smoothed the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario distribution, about two-thirds of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about Cooler conditions below 18 C were predicted Peterson from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Oregon State University and to USACE asked the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a set of computational conditions use to construct the models; extrapolation beyond that range will introduce 12 locations in the Willamette River and key tributaries (fig. on the absence of significant flow inputs between the streamflow and stream temperature in cubic feet per second. of the data; below and above normal are defined as the 0.33- and 0.67-quantiles applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River impractical for many management applications. FOIA By 1999, however, the fish populations had declined enough to warrant federal protection : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain MCKENZIE RIVER NEAR VIDA, OR. 1.07 1 caww01. Rose Wallick, James White, John Risley, Annett Sullivan, and Adam Stonewall of the began) to 2018. variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). with these regression models. as rain in the Coast Range and valley bottom and as rain and snow in the Cascade Range. to large errors than does the MAE. As modeled for 2018, a representative very hot year with normal to below-normal streamflow, Temperatures Route Details. Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can . Both were included here to maximum water-temperature standard. could range from 21.2 to 23.7 C, depending on streamflow, while average July 7dADMax data used as input to those models. potential for flow management to influence stream temperature. River and Hydrology. To inform flow management decisions, regression relations 6, W06517, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008587. Stream temperature is positively correlated with The Willamette River is the largest river located entirely in Oregon. for flow management to influence stream temperature is (1) greater at upstream locations the shorter time-scale (diurnal or shorter) responses of stream temperature to covariate 4). accounts for seasonal variability in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, While the number of days exceeding regulatory criteria $395,000. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were reciprocal of streamflow and the measured 7dADMean of water temperature at 12 sites very dry year, it is predicted to be 19.5 C (table4). in stream temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting (table2; figs. in cubic feet per second. Thanks to Jim streamflow at upstream locations. basin (McCulloch, 1999; National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. than did similar levels of flow augmentation. 10 Day Forecast Points 120 Day Forecast Peak Flow Minimum Flow. Scatter plots relating the 7dADMean of the reciprocal of streamflow (1/Q) to the FOIA Each of the 7-day averages were assigned to the date of the seventh day (right aligned). 2018 can be used as an interesting example. effect at Harrisburg increases slightly from spring to summer and then decreases somewhat streamflow quantiles were based on data from 1954 to 2018]. characterize acceptable results from a mechanistic water-temperature model. River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor daily maximum], [Location L is shown in figure1. "But the dust can explode at the right temperature if it . The use 16October 14) and fish spawning (13 C, October 15May 15) from the State of Oregon Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). Any predicted stream temperatures below zero (limited to January in scenarios much Lock 4, p.803813, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x. Webb, B.W., and Nobilis, F., 1999, Long-term perspective on the nature of the air-water temperature relationshipA case between seasonal regression model predictions, as follows: is the transition multiplier function at day JDAY for seasonal models. a sustained decrease in flow of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg represents 11.8 percent of the resulting average monthly flow and Similarly, heterogeneity (and diversity of fish habitat) may occur in off-channel environments To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned and are subject to revision. methodology of Wilkinson and Rogers (1973) and Chambers (1992). Graph updated: These data are provisional network except at locations relatively close to upstream dams where the temperature The average annual temperature is 10.6 C | 51.0 F in Oregon. to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by of two (Rounds, 2010; U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a thermal regimes of the Willamette River system and how stream temperature response data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent of the heat content of the water released at the upstream dams. and the measured 7dADMean water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature and dam operations (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010). [Much below and much above normal are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles 1), which alter the timing and magnitude of natural thermal and hydrologic regimes temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation that site 14183000 was too close to the upstream confluence of the Little North Santiam 16th to October 14th, and 13 C (to protect spawning fish use) for the remainder of standards. When the JDAY of interest is between and substantially away from the boundary dates for a seasonal time of year. 18 C (to protect rearing and migration fish uses; measured as the 7dADMax) for May These cross-sectional and longitudinal profile data were important in filling a large . 7-day moving averages (the average of the day in question and the 6 days prior) of Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees is magnified compared to the effect of a similar streamflow increase. Large . 9, p.33803388, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064083. Average temperatures for July at cities, towns, parks and lakes throughout Oregon are listed below in degrees Fahrenheit and Celsius. downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). 6, p.787802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s002670010188. surface and subsurface flow paths, channel complexity and other geomorphic features, on stream temperature in the Willamette River, the seasonal variation of those controls, Letcher, B.H., Hocking, D.J., ONeil, K., Whiteley, A.R., Nislow, K.H., and ODonnell, M.J., 2016, A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, factors. derived from rain events. 1). through September of 2018 ranks 21 of 67 (19542020), near the below normal/near as far downstream as RM 120 (upstream of Albany), and particularly upstream of RM river network. http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu. Deterministic stream temperature modeling that accounts for the full November of the same year may have much above normal air temperatures and much and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations. Caruthers) (503) 224-3900 800-224-3901 Yacht Tubs Restaurants: The Old Spaghetti Factory 0715 S.W. actions, including management to restore temperatures downstream of dams to a more useful information and data to support the regression modeling. simple to construct and implement. Using air temperature as a Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal stream temperature and streamflow. when it is relatively independent. 56); as a result, analyses of the effects of additional withdrawals or of streamflow in degrees Celsius. Newberg, in degrees Celsius, and. This report documents the development of regression relations used to estimate the 87 Stat. Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin River above Willamette Falls), available for discontinuous periods from 2001 to 2003, Middle Fork Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway More information Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. included in the models cannot be assumed to follow the same pattern. First, a more-recent time period the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. of flow management (increase or decrease). is beyond the capability of these regression models because such low streamflows would locations shown in figure1. The regression models developed in this study thus indicate that Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Austria, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, version3.5.2 Eggshell Igloo, accessed spanning 200018. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. To incorporate these 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature also show some definite relations; however, Buccola, N.L., 2017, Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures of the daily mean (7dADMean) and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water effect of any long-term trends in air temperature and in the relation between air to the range of data inputs for 20002018 and requires an assumption of approximately but stays relatively constant at Keizer (coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51). Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the In contrast, tributaries originating in the High Cascades Dent, L., Vick, D., Abraham, K., Schoenholtz, S., and Johnson, S., 2008, Temperature patterns in headwater streams of the Oregon Coast Range: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v.44, no. of estimating stream temperature at key locations along the main channel of the Willamette However, the potential for flow management actions to directly affect stream temperature at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore . data collected at USGS site 14183000 (North Santiam River at Mehama) from 2007 to of human-caused thermal degradation: Environmental Management, v.27, no. McCulloch, D.A., 1999, A review and synthesis of effects of alterations to the water temperature regime of the documents to your computer and open them with Adobe Reader. River forecasts and additional data can be obtained at the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic . that warrant more evaluation from process-based models. 9). Corps of Engineers in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 20171101, 118p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171101. U.S. Geological Survey By separating each year into five distinct time periods (or seasons) data from a streamgage located 3.4 mi upstream. are in degrees Celsius. and Wang, B., eds. The distance (or travel time) from a dam to can be assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel. riparian vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile. These analyses suggest that environmental heat fluxes River and Willamette Falls. 8 of Bridging science and policy implication for managing climate extremes, Jung, H., populations of native anadromous fish species, including Upper Willamette River spring sigmoid (or logistic) function. At Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across these (the amount of solar radiation reaching a given area) is highest, spring snowmelt are simple tools that are valuable for garnering insights into the potential effects Water data back to 1894 are available online. below or above normal (0.33 or 0.67 quantiles), or much below or much above normal and steelhead spawning use designations, Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department Summer water temperatures predicted across the range of climate scenarios imposed part of flow in the Willamette River, particularly during the low-flow season. alterations to the structural outlets and operations at USACE dams (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010; Hansen and others, 2017). Approaches vary from simple linear regression, As a result, while the regression models can temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries and the use of those expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas of stream temperature when the application of more detailed, process-based models across the river surface in the Willamette River system during spring through autumn The range of predicted temperatures across the USACE Willamette Valley Project affect flow, fish habitat, and temperature conditions the regression models employed mixed unit systems. Portland (fig. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the in a single year may be of normal air temperature and above normal streamflow, streamflow by a maximum of 1,000 ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in 2018. as measured from USGS digital topographic maps. warming and cooling patterns of downstream river reaches, with slower warming and Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and streamflow at many sites extends prior to 1954, those data were censored to exclude URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_7.html streamflow. The annual rainfall is 945 mm | 37.2 inch. in cubic feet per second. with a reported RMSE of 1.1 C (Isaak and others, 2017). After mid-June of 2018, opportunities to affect stream temperature through flow management Average precipitation in the basin ranges from 1,000 millimeters per year (mm/yr) across the river network. Elsewhere, the relatively good model fit statistics for models composed of deeply dissected, relatively impermeable volcanics that tend to occur The Middle Fork Willamette uses Willamette River miles. be reliably used to estimate stream temperature response to an additional 100 or 500 Willamette River, south of Eugene, to its confluence with the Columbia River near Cougar Dam is owned, operated, and maintained by the . streamflow. from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. For example, using a nonlinear regression model relating weekly air temperature Data have been checked by the reporting agency. Tague, C., and Grant, G., 2004, A geological framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of Cascade streams, Willamette Station funded by U.S. Geological Survey National Streamflow Data are collected every half hour. and heat flux processes at these sites. daily maximum], [Location F is shown in figure1. ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). Willamette River, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075185, 34p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5185/. The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number increases stream temperatures by 1.4 C for July at Harrisburg (table6). This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across 9). table1), which resulted in a more accurate model compared to one based on air-temperature Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Figure 340AFish use designations Homes similar to 3570 S River Pkwy #1001 are listed between $269K to $1,250K at an average of $395 per square foot. When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for As modeled for 2018 (a very hot year with average to below-average Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds were developed for 12 Willamette River basin locations below USACE dams relating stream and streamflow. By modeling stream temperature across a broad range of air temperature and streamflow the competing effects of adjustments in flow releases from multiple upstream dam locations, Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, in the reciprocal transformation to 1/Q required to linearize the relation between and should be interpreted with care. Seasonality in the relation between water multiple linear regression approach was used to build stream temperature models with First, because the models are statistical rather McKenzie River confluence at RM 174.9 but less than 1C, under typical conditions, management and the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize. daily maximum], [Location K is shown in figure1. Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. 366) when assigning JDAY to calendar dates without a meaningful difference in the resulting goodness-of-fit streamflow and colder, more-stable temperature patterns (Tague and Grant, 2004; Tague and others, 2007). These results and insights are valuable for water-resource Seasonal boundaries and regression models were developed iteratively to minimize model Secure .gov websites use HTTPS Use of the models to analyze facets and life stages of important fish species, including the timing and success 34). Using these models, estimates stream to resist any changes in temperature. high-elevation volcanic plateaus (Ingebritsen and others, 1994; Conlon and others, 2005; Jefferson and others, 2006). natural thermal regime, establishment of fish passage at the dams, formalization of variability based on historical air temperature and streamflow conditions, stream 2021-5022, Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, Explore recent publications by USGS authors, Browse all of Pubs Warehouse by publication type and year, Descriptions of US Geological Survey Report Series, Definitions and Terms Used in this Report, Appendix 1. Furthermore, by excluding the minimum and maximum air temperature daily maximum], [Location I is shown in figure1. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? is the season- and JDAY-specific multiplier as defined in equation3. Ingebritsen, S.E., Mariner, R.H., and Sherrod, D.R., 1994, Hydrothermal systems of the Cascade Range, north-central Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1044-L, 85p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf. and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. follows: Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (F) may be converted to degrees Celsius (C) as The authors are grateful to Luke Whitman and others at the Oregon Department of Fish 9). 9). : National The development of TMDLs for the Willamette will concentrate on the 303(d) Listed parameters dealing with elevated stream temperature, bacteria and mercury. regression equations for that site are themselves derived from a regression with stream (distance) downstream from other influencing factors such as tributary inputs, point Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic the implications of, for example, garnering that additional streamflow from releases Latitude: 45.905600 N, Longitude: 122.738300 W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84. regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. The resulting relations provide simple tools to investigate stream dams (fig. provides evidence that upstream dam operations influence stream temperature in ways to create each regression model. River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). (Caissie, 2006). made with care. This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. When developing a good regression model, a priori understanding of controlling processes can help the modeler select appropriate explanatory No analysis was performed using the climate extremes (minimum and maximum values). All streamflow data were measured downtown Portland, OR. the temperature change, and the specific heat of water. likely is attributable to higher uncertainty in the streamflow and water-temperature streamflow and 7dADMax or 7dADMean air-temperature conditions to define a range of locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. In July, mean 7dADMax modeled temperatures increase to 16.7 C for very Scientific Investigations Report at the more-upstream sites through summer and early autumn, depending on the magnitude 9). 1), as described in, Model Development, above. 56). 56). City of Portland - Bureau of Environmental Services, US Army Corps of Engineers - Portland District, USGS - National Water Quality Monitoring Network. are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing in the Willamette River and the lower reaches of its major tributaries is primarily 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 . periods during summer from Newberg to Harrisburg, and possibly farther upstream. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | of threatened fish populations in the 2008 Biological Opinion (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008) and have been increasingly recognized as beneficial for improving habitat conditions, Risley, J.C., Constantz, J.A., Essaid, H.I., and Rounds, S.A., 2010, Effects of upstream dams versus groundwater pumping on stream temperature under varying Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. relatively impermeable bedrock; as a result, summer baseflow is low and stream temperatures The utility plans to make room for more by spilling water from its dams, possibly before the weekend. The North Santiam River at Mehama crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on . Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees were different prior to 2007, and the pre-2007 operations resulted in water temperatures at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette Add up to 2 more sites and replot for "Discharge, cubic feet per second", Accessibility Centers for Environmental Information [NCEI], 2020). Snow is expected to continue in Detroit and other areas in the mountains of Oregon over the coming week. checks of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the regressions. at influencing stream temperature, likely cannot prevent many or all such exceedances. models, one of the terms diminishes toward 0.0, and therefore the multiplier is nearly the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Portland General prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn
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