The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. %%EOF
We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. He also was an associate editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Vail Daily. The Colorado Sun is a journalist-owned, award-winning news outlet based in Denver that strives to cover all of Colorado so that our state our community can better understand itself. Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. hbbd``b`$WX)! Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . Lake Powell Water Level including historical chart. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. At the beginning of the series in 1999, water levels in Lake Powell were relatively high, and the water was a clear, dark blue. . The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. 15 Day Weather Forecast Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. %PDF-1.7
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The forecast isnt great, said Kyle Whitaker, Colorado River Manager for the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, one of the largest diverters of water in the headwaters region of the river. Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . Lake Powell, Printable Version However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. Much of that water. Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. Jerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. Gas Prices on Lake Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. google_color_link = "0000FF"; Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; The plan can be found at the following website: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. With low-runoff conditions and . The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. 04:12 - Source: CNN But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. Flight Center. The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Water Summary Today is day 136 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. google_color_text = "000000"; But it is concerning. SW Satellite Weather a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). It can store about five times the average annual flow. (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. google_color_url = "426C95"; U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; Detailed Map of Powell //-->, Printable Version For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert, it'll take a long time to restore the levels, too. Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. 15 Day Weather Forecast Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. google_color_link = "0000FF"; At the same time, power producers are gearing up to craft a fallback plan for extending hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam if water levels continue to fall. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. Based on the current forecast of 10.44 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the February 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3555.45 feet with approximately 7.47 maf in storage (32 percent of capacity). She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation announced extraordinary action to keep the water level at Powell from dropping too low, which could threaten hydropower production at Powells Glen Canyon Dam. Fresh Water News is an independent, non-partisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. The peak inflow to Lake Powell occurs in mid- to late spring, as the winter snow in the Rocky Mountains melts. Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. This is the big warning bell.. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. google_ad_width = 160; google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; monthly forecasts become more accurate. For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. The northwestern side branch of Lake Powell remained cut off from the rest of the reservoir. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7
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"I would be reluctant to limit it to years just since 2000, because I think there is some value in acknowledging the variability that goes on in our basin," he says. It will be among the lowest years of generation ever, said Nick Williams, power manager for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region in an interview last week. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. Correction: This article has been corrected to indicate that Lake Powell began filling 59 years ago, not 60 years, as the original article stated. 04:18 . WEco is funded by multiple donors. That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines; Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023; Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the. @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5
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