" Timing your technology " means stop spending your ti me too much on technology but rather focus on some important things in your life . We won't always understand God's timing, so we have to trust that it is best for us. and what it isn't. Learning for the sake of learning. Further, 95% of the energy for transportation comes from oil. In recent years, I have been attracted back to academia. "They say, timing is everything. If the software doesnt work out, I guess well do something else. We may not understand, we may not see, But we must trust, have faith, and believe. Late reflections are those that arrive after about 60 ms following the reception of the direct signal. We can draw lines on a graph but we dont know the constraints. The idea of VR was that straightforward an extrapolation of computer monitors, it was that overdetermined, and so compelling that VR pioneers resemble nothing so much as moths to the flame, garnering grants in the hopes that this time things will improve. Well start off renting people a doomed format in a way inferior to our established competitor Blockbuster (which will choose to commit suicide by ignoring both mail order & Internet all the way until bankruptcy in 2010)8; this will (somehow) let us pivot to streaming, where we will license all our content from our worst enemies, who will destroy us the instant we are too successful & already intend to run streaming services of their ownbut thats OK because well just convince Wall Street to wait decades while giving us hundreds of billions of dollars to replace Hollywood by making thousands of film & TV series ourselves (despite the fact that weve never done anything like that before and there is no reason to think we would be any better at it than they are)., Or Github: Well offer code hosting services like that of SourceForge or Google Code which requires developers to use one of the most user-hostile DVCSes, only to FLOSS developers who are notorious cheapskates, and charge them a few bucks for a private version., SpaceX: Orbital Sciences Corporation has a multi-decade headstart but are fat and lazy; well catch up by buying some spare Russian rockets while we invent our own futuristic reusable ones. In the current time people can't imagine their life without technology. Konrad Zuse vs von Neumann). First of all, you'd wake up late because your smartphone alarm no longer exists. The aeroplane industry cannot now redeem Daedalus nor can the computer industry recover the money spent by the British Admiralty more than a hundred years ago in support of Charles Babbage and his calculating machine. It may be easier said than done, but one of the biggest factors in taking time to reflect should be stillness and, if possible, solitude. Its a weird perspective to take, but we can think of other technologies which may be like this. In many ways, technology simplifies life,and it has many beneficial effects to the community and the human condition. My timing on the technical front could not have been better. By important I mean guaranteed a Nobel Prize and any sum of money you want to mention. Also, we have models for horizontal and hydraulically fractured wells, homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs, and a host of useful boundary geometries. An additional analogy from reinforcement learning is PSRL, which handles more complex problems by committing to a strategy and following it until the end and either success/failure. Remember, you dont know anything else about the tech landscape in the 2000s, like that Google will go way up from its IPO, you dont know about Apples revival under Jobsall you know is that a social network will exist and will grow hugely. Yet both of these can be enablers for competitive advantage. You cant imitate a successful entrepreneur, the time is past. The concept behind antireflection technology is to control the light used in an optical device in such a manner that the light rays reflect from surfaces where it is intended and . Timing technology are one of the products of this technology. Facebook is the biggest archive of photographs there has ever been, with truly colossal storage requirements; could it have succeeded in the 1990s? And the next Mark Zuckerberg wont create a social network. The research manager had to be active in defining goals, in marshaling means and resources, and in assessing success or failure. It seems a reasonable guess that the bottleneck will never again lie in hardware speeds and storage capacities, as opposed to purely logical and programming problems. This technological advancement is believed to be able to address the knowledge gap in neurophysiology and neurological disorder. After solving a problem, humanity imagines that it finds in analogous solutions the key to all problems. : Custom Type-Curve Generation for Pressure Transient Analysis of Elongated Linear Flow Systems,, Moran, J.H., and Finklea, E.E. The trouble is that people very often resort to all sorts of devices in order not to think, because thinking is such hard work. Thomas John Watson Sr., 18741956. AI researcher Donald Michie, claimed in 1970, based on a 1969 poll, that a majority of AI researchers estimated 10100 years for AGI (or 19792069) and that There is also fair agreement that the chief obstacles are not hardware limitations.16 While AI researcher surveys still suggest that wasnt a bad range (Gruetzemacher et al 2019), the success of deep learning makes clear that hardware was a huge limitation, and resources 50 years ago fell short by at least 6 orders of magnitude. Or were they lucky in trying at the right time, and merely captured all of the value, because a 99% adequate VR headset is worth 0%, and they added the final 1%? Entrepreneurs, with their speculations and optimistic biases, serve as randomization devices to sample a strategy regardless of the conventional wisdom, which at that point may be no more than an information cascade; information cascades, however, can be broken by the existence of outliers who are either informed or act at random (misfits). Dude, dont you remember CueCat at all? Although Babbage was one of Britains great innovative geniuses, support of his work was wasted money in terms of tangible return on investment. Rather, this is how the process of invention and creation works. Perhaps had Kelleher known intimately of all the challenges of entering the airline business, he would have run screaming from the challenge versus deciding to take on the full set of risks. This last fact is what is most significant. Yet, how useful would this knowledge be, really? Integrated Cognitive Systems, Michie1970 (pg9396 of Michie, On Machine Intelligence): How long is it likely to be before a machine can be developed approximating to adult human standards of intellectual performance? 2). She has also worked in industry for Schlumberger. I read it constantly thinking yes, yes, you were rightfor all the good it did you!, or not quite, itd actually take another decade for that to really work out. Open Document Technology, and its underlying aspects affect all of us as we go through the continuum of time. 1. Timing Technology Overview Timers, counters, and clocks are a critical component in most embedded systems. Yes). Day to day events can be stressful and sometimes they come out of the blue and catch us off guard. How we decide by Jonah Lehrer. Similarly, the benefit of taking Moores law seriously is that one can plan ahead to take advantage of it24 even if one doesnt know exactly when, if ever, it will happen. Start a hobby. Stewart Butterfield wanted to make a MMORPG game which failed, and all he could salvage out of it was the photo-sharing part, which became Flickr; he still really wanted to make a MMORPG, so after Flickr, he founded a company to make the MMORPG Glitch which also failed, so after trying to shut down his company and being told not to by his investors, he salvaged the chat part from it, which became Slack. : Use of the Pressure Derivative for Diagnosing Pressure-Transient Behavior,. I cannot say whether transportation will evolve to a different fuel or whether our industry will evolve to pro- vide energy for more than just transportation. After all, why would they say no? As a research manager with training and experience in pharmaceutical chemistry, a lively interest in medicine, and rapport with the medical community, Hrlein was well positioned to survey the field where chemistry and medicine joined battle against disease. You may find the questions listed above can help you to develop an outline before you write your paper. It may be relevant to note that Musk did not found Tesla; the two co-founders ultimately quit the company., As late as 20072008, Blockbuster could have still beaten Netflix, as its Total Access program demonstrated, but CEO changes scuppered its last chance. : Theoretical Analysis of Pressure Phenomena Associated With the Wireline Formation Tester,. As stated in the course outline, the main focus of this course is on the educational . Jr.: An Investigation of Wellbore Storage and Skin Effect in Unsteady Liquid Flow: I. Analytical Treatment,, Horner, D.R. Tesla: instead of just building batteries and selling them to Detroit, we are going to build our own cars from scratch plus own the distribution network. Positive feedback about physical-exam skills or clinical decision-making occurred during encounters, positive or constructive team-based feedback occurred immediately following encounters, and individualized constructive feedback occurred in one-on-one settings following rounding sessions. He saw a need for friendly and mutually supportive relations between industrial research and development organizations, academic institutions, and clinicians. By and large, oil has only two purposes. within the environment where learning is taking place). Let me warn you, important problem must be phrased carefully. This balances overall exploitation & exploration to progress as fast as possible, showing the usefulness of technological forecasting on a global level despite its uselessness to individuals. We can think of the prototypes as 23 different attempts to describe the inevitable generic lightbulb. A major benefit of R&D, then, is in laying fallow until the ripe time when they can be immediately exploited in previously-unpredictable ways; applied R&D or VC strategies should focus on maintaining diversity of investments, while continuing to flexibly revisit previous failures which forecasts indicate may have reached ripe time. With optogenetics, people were trying to control brain cells with light going back to 1971. Explains that technology refers to a wide range of electronic materials and learning methods, including video production, distance learning, and smart classrooms. And pity, because the sad thing is noting how few future millionaires or billionaires grace the page of TMLone quickly realizes that yes, person X was 100% right about Y happening even when everyone thought it insane, except that X was just a bit off, by a few years, and either jumped the gun or was too late, and so some other Z who doesnt even appear in TML was the person who wound up taking all the spoils. Virgin Atlantic: airlines are cool. Ramadan is a time of spiritual reflection, devotion, and increased charity. You should start from 6:00 AM until 7:00 PM. Such a device would not have been aimed at the then unattainable goal of economic viability; but its successful demonstration might, just conceivably, have greatly accelerated matters when the time was finally ripe. A simple, efficient, and low-cost method is proposed to reduce the timing jitter in passively Q-switched microchip lasers by self-injection seeding. The word precursor is indispensable to the vocabulary of criticism, but one must try to purify it from any connotation of polemic or rivalry. Enough progress in one domain (particularly computing power), can sometimes make up for stasis in another domain. Verify whether or not your instructor specified a word count for the paper instead of merely following this average. I doubt it. First, how do you use discoveries from the past more than other scientists do? A portion of the output pulse of the microchip laser was incident into the fiber delay line, and then, the backward reflection light induced the formation of the pulse. The question constantly asked of anyone who claims to know a better way (as futurologists implicitly do): If youre so smart, why arent you rich? The lesson I draw is: it is not enough to predict the future, one has to get the timing right to not be ruined, and then execute, and then get lucky in a myriad ways. A particularly germane example here is Krafft et al 2016/Krafft2017 (discussion), which examines a large dataset of trades made by eToro online traders, who are able to clone financial trading strategies of more successful traders; as traders find successful strategies, others gradually imitate them, and so the system as a whole converges on better strategies in what they identify as a sort of particle filter-like implementation of distributed Thompson sampling which they dub social sampling. You should maintain a formal tone, but it is acceptable to write in the first person and to use personal pronouns. Although, I have used technology in my classroom before, now I. Summary by one VC of a16z investment strategy. reflection-in-action. Pity the Scientist Who Discovers the Discovered, ignoring both mail order & Internet all the way until bankruptcy in 2010, eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials, The most successful people I know believe in themselves almost to the point of delusion, Why did we wait so long for the bicycle?, minor technical glitches derailed vital deals, borrowed money from friends to pay his rent, ensuring that no one becomes the next Gates, a has-been 1980s PC maker and an obscure search engine, Thiels definite vs indefinite optimism, DARPA paradigm in fostering AI & computing, people in general appear to overexploit & underexplore. My best timing was meeting my husband of nearly 30 years, Michael Economides. You cant foresee what will be successful based on what has been successful; you cant even foresee what wont be successful based on what was already unsuccessful; and you cant ask researchers because they are incentivized to not know the timing any better than anyone else. I was still commuting to Connecticut on the weekends and really did not know what was going to transpire on my return. In His perfect timing, all is planned We must have patience, hold His hand. She currently is working to introduce degree programs in energy engineering at Texas A&M U. However, those are precisely the startups that crazy people will have done years before when they looked like bad ideas, avoiding the waste of delay. In a counterfactual world, Google went down in flames quite easily because it never hit upon the advertising innovations that saved it, no matter how much you liked PageRank, and anything else is hindsight bias. How do you time your startup? Early PC history is rife with examples of the prescient failing. Vacuum tube technology was first exploited for high-speed digital computing in Britain during the Second World War [16]. Question Your Life: Naikan Self-Reflection and the Transformation of Our Stories - Gregg Krech. Many devices are in fact using oscillators which is also under this so called technology to generate timing pulses in order to function well. In other words, her smartphone is a videophone; videophones used to be one of the canonical examples of how technology failed, stemming from its appearance in the 1964 New York Worlds Fair & 2001: A Space Odyssey but subsequent failure to usurp telephones. A valuable outcome is a result that has practical importance for clinical or preventive medicine and, implicitly, commercial value for industry. Today, I am not really a proponent of type-curve matching per se, but rather with using the derivative response to recognize flow regimes.13 We now can use data processing originally designed for convolution or deconvolution of downhole pressure and flow-rate data for analysis of production data.14 This approach is particularly effective in wells with permanent gauges. Any good idea can be made to sound like a bad idea & probably did sound like a bad idea then5, and Bessemer VCs anti-profile is a list of good ideas which Bessemer declined to invest in. 64), The changing structure of American innovation: Some cautionary remarks for economic growth, deterministic schedule posterior sampling reinforcement learning (DS-PRL), Facebook: the world needs yet another MySpace or Friendster [or. In their book Edisons Electric Light: Biography of an Invention, Robert Friedel, Paul Israel, and Bernard Finn list 23 inventors of incandescent bulbs prior to Edison. Its difficult to invest in computers or AI or social networking or VR; there is no index for these things, and it is hard to see how there even could be such a thing. 9, 4 (1969)] There is also fair agreement that the chief obstacles are not hardware limitations. All the problems of the world could be settled if people were only willing to think. Can you at least profit from your knowledge of the outcome? 2. have new ideas and skills to do a better job. Kafkas idiosyncrasy is present in each of these writings, to a greater or lesser degree, but if Kafka had not written, we would not perceive it; that is to say, it would not exist. This will work well for traditional interviews and those stations at the MMI which ask more traditional interview questions. Pillars of the Industry - Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. ): CyberSlice blew through $174.1$100.02000m+ trying to sell pizza online, but this time will be different., FedEx: The experienced & well-capitalized Emery Air Freight is already trying and failing to make the hub-and-spoke air delivery method work; Ill blow my inheritance on trying to compete with them while being so undercapitalized Ill have to commit multiple crimes to keep FedEx afloat like literally gambling the companys money at Las Vegas., Lotus1-2-3: VisiCalc literally invented the spreadsheet, has owned the market for 4 years despite clones like Microsofts, and singlehandedly made the Apple II PC a mega-success; well write our own spreadsheet from scratch, fixing some of VisiCalcs problems, and beat them to the IBM PC. At the same time, our entire lifestyle and that of the developing world depends on energy. The problem was that some tests never exhibited the correct straight line for analysis, although it was always possible to find an apparent oneone that would lead, in many cases, to completely erroneous results. We tried something, or somebody else tried something, and it didnt work. We know that a given animal with a mane is a horse, and that one with horns is a bull. why should a podcasting company, Odeo, have led to Twitter? Part of the explanation is survivorship bias causing hindsight bias. Issues like component cost were not something that could be solved by a VR research project, no matter how ambitious. Will young petroleum engineers need to retrain themselves before the end of their careers? On an individual level, ideas are worthless because so many others have them toomultiple invention is the rule, and not the exception. The most important development for well-test interpretation was still to come: the pressure derivative. When minimum and maximum score are included in the same model, the coefficient on minimum score disappears. Every authentic solution brings in its wake a train of grotesque solutions. In particular, VCs are trying to determine whether this founder will be able to create a compelling story around the company mission in order to attract great engineers, executives, sales and marketing people, etc. The progress in technology has good impacts as well as bad implications to people. He had to intervene where necessary to minimize friction between chemists and medical researchers, an especially important task for chemotherapy as a composite entity. What if you believed the story they were trying to tell us: that each year, as sure as winter follows summer, and day follows night, computers would get half again better, and half again smaller, and half again cheaper, year after year, and that in 5 decades they would be 30 million times more powerful than they were then, and cheap. Reflections on Timing and Technology Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. Learn more with Olympus. After 20 years with Schlumberger in various positions, she returned to academia as a full professor of chemical engineering at the U. of Houston, where she has served as Director of the Petroleum Engineering Program as an adjunct professor since January 2000. and less. I have learned the underlying principles and techniques in designing and creating your web page using different web editors. What was systemic in Hrleins way of thinking was his concept of the organizational pattern or patterns that will best facilitate the production of valuable results in the areas in which medicine and chemistry interact. The system as a whole can be seen in RL terms. Privately, given the skewed returns, diminishing utility, the oversized negative impacts (a bad startup can ruin ones life and drive one to suicide), the limited number of startups any individual can engage in (yielding gamblers ruin)26, and the fact that startups & VC will capture only a minute percentage of the total gains from any success (most of which will turn into consumer surplus/positive externalities), the only startups that make any rational sense, which you wouldnt have to be crazy to try, are the overdetermined ones which anyone can see are a great idea. Further, people in general appear to overexploit & underexplore, exacerbating the problemeven if the expected value of a startup (or experimentation, or R&D in general) is positive for individuals. While timing per se seems unrelated to performance, a timing-strategy alignment is. The aim of the study is to evaluate the effects of sports, sports education, technological uses, and their effects on sports education. She has since been appointed to the Albert B. Stevens Endowed Chair in Petroleum Engineering at Texas A&M U. Ehlig-Economides has received numerous awards from SPE and was elected to the Natl. 30 years later, its the same headlines. But it is by no means obvious that it was unripe for Babbages research and development effort, if only it had been conceived in terms of a more severely delimited objective: the construction of a working model. This, too, was an ill-conceived notion, because the flowmeter sensor could accurately record only a few minutes of data before the flow rate dropped below its accuracy range. Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. Its only rocket science., Uber/Lyft/DiDi: Taxis & buses. Likewise, the idea of production-log testing was to use a flowmeter to measure the downhole flow rate during pressure-buildup tests, thereby eliminating the need for pressure-derivative analysis because the wellbore storage would be corrected by the flow-rate measurement, and an equivalent to the Horner plot would suffice. and there were huge projects that have never been shown to the public to try to make a consumable [VR product], very expensive ones. Such an attitude is similar to the DARPA paradigm in fostering AI & computing, a rational process of connecting the dots between here and there intended to orchestrate the advancement of an entire suite of technologies, with responsibilities split between multiple project managers each given considerable autonomy for several years. Granted that an ICS can be developed, is now the right time to mount the effort? Imagine it is 1965. In this regard, it is amusing to note the exponential growth of conferences like NIPS or ICML20102019.). For his attack on one of the most important reverse salientsthe chemotherapy of bacterial infectionsHrlein called upon the medical researcher Domagk and the chemists Mietzsch and Klarer. Yet the principle of unripe time, distilled by F. M. Cornford [15] more than half a century ago from the changeless stream of Cambridge academic life, has provided the epitaph of more than one premature technology. Those who lump oil in the energy mix as though it competes with coal, nuclear, and renewable energy resources have missed a crucial point. Learning for the sake of learning and maximum score are included in the same timing your technology reflection, the coefficient on score!, in marshaling means and resources, and not the exception retrain themselves before end! 7:00 PM Type-Curve Generation for Pressure Transient Analysis of Elongated Linear Flow Systems timing your technology reflection Horner... Examples of the prescient failing somebody else tried something, and its aspects! 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